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Lemon and orange updates
Mixed conditions for lemon and orange crops.
Valencia harvest is progressing steadily, reaching about 40% by the end of July. Quality is strong, though marketing challenges have arisen due to larger-than-normal fruit sizing. Prices for larger fruit are down notably year over year. While export demand appears to have softened as Southern Hemisphere fruit hits international markets, domestic demand is holding steady and should strengthen as schools reopen. Seasonal imports from Chile and South Africa picked up in July with volumes so far similar to 2025 levels. USDA’s final citrus forecast projects U.S. orange production, including tangerines and mandarins, will be up 8% year over year for the 2025/26 crop, with gains driven primarily by non-Valencia varieties in California. FDA updated the orange juice standard of identity for the first time in more than 60 years, lowering the minimum Brix requirement and allowing up to 15% mandarin or mandarin-hybrid juice in pasteurized orange juice. This change is expected to reduce reliance on imported juice. USDA announced plans to purchase $20 million of fresh oranges from domestic producers, the same level as 2025.
Lemon harvest in coastal California is nearing the end and the crop reportedly has good quality with a larger-than-average size profile. Ventura County’s 2025 annual crop report showed planted acres declined 5% to 15,247 acres, but production more than doubled. Import volumes, coupled with harvest in the Central Valley, may put downward pressure on prices. USDA forecasts lemon production will fall slightly in the 2025/26 season to 27.6 million boxes.
Profitability
June 10, 2026Lemons: Breakeven profitability - Neutral 12-month outlook
Oranges: Slightly profitable - Neutral 12-month outlook
Relatively weak market conditions will continue to pressure lemon prices.
Relatively strong markets along with fruit supply and quality are supportive of prices.
Domestic markets make up the vast majority of lemon and orange demand, with exports only accounting for about 11% of total production. The largest foreign markets include Canada, South Korea, Mexico, Japan, and to a much lesser extent, Hong Kong. Lemon and orange imports have increased significantly over the last decade and make up 17% of total domestic supply, a relatively high amount compared to other specialty crops. Increased plantings coupled with low labor costs and minimal trade barriers have enabled citrus growers in Central and South America to compete in U.S. markets.
Lemon production, exports and imports
USDA Citrus Fruits Summary. U.S. Census Bureau. Crop year is from August to July.
Orange production, exports and imports
USDA Citrus Fruits Summary. U.S. Census Bureau. Crop year is from October to September.
Tariff tracker - Tariff rates applied to U.S. trade partners are consistenly updated to reflect policy changes. The World Trade Organization (WTO) tracks duties and tariffs on lemons and oranges. For your convenience, the following links will take you to tariff data for South Korea (fresh oranges and mandarins/tangerines/satsumas) and Japan (fresh oranges and mandarins/tangerines/satsumas). Citrus fruits are currently exempt from tariffs with Canada under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), but please refer to the U.S. Trade Representative website for up-to-date information. WTO also tracks rates for lemon imports and orange imports to the U.S. Please consult with a trade lawyer or professional for detailed and up-to-date insights on tariff rates and their application to lemons and oranges.
For guidance on interpreting duty and tariff rates, please refer to our Tariff Guide.
Lemon and orange updates
Mixed conditions for lemon and orange crops.
Valencia harvest is progressing steadily, reaching about 40% by the end of July. Quality is strong, though marketing challenges have arisen due to larger-than-normal fruit sizing. Prices for larger fruit are down notably year over year. While export demand appears to have softened as Southern Hemisphere fruit hits international markets, domestic demand is holding steady and should strengthen as schools reopen. Seasonal imports from Chile and South Africa picked up in July with volumes so far similar to 2025 levels. USDA’s final citrus forecast projects U.S. orange production, including tangerines and mandarins, will be up 8% year over year for the 2025/26 crop, with gains driven primarily by non-Valencia varieties in California. FDA updated the orange juice standard of identity for the first time in more than 60 years, lowering the minimum Brix requirement and allowing up to 15% mandarin or mandarin-hybrid juice in pasteurized orange juice. This change is expected to reduce reliance on imported juice. USDA announced plans to purchase $20 million of fresh oranges from domestic producers, the same level as 2025.
Lemon harvest in coastal California is nearing the end and the crop reportedly has good quality with a larger-than-average size profile. Ventura County’s 2025 annual crop report showed planted acres declined 5% to 15,247 acres, but production more than doubled. Import volumes, coupled with harvest in the Central Valley, may put downward pressure on prices. USDA forecasts lemon production will fall slightly in the 2025/26 season to 27.6 million boxes.
Profitability
June 10, 2026Lemons: Breakeven profitability - Neutral 12-month outlook
Oranges: Slightly profitable - Neutral 12-month outlook
Relatively weak market conditions will continue to pressure lemon prices.
Relatively strong markets along with fruit supply and quality are supportive of prices.
Domestic markets make up the vast majority of lemon and orange demand, with exports only accounting for about 11% of total production. The largest foreign markets include Canada, South Korea, Mexico, Japan, and to a much lesser extent, Hong Kong. Lemon and orange imports have increased significantly over the last decade and make up 17% of total domestic supply, a relatively high amount compared to other specialty crops. Increased plantings coupled with low labor costs and minimal trade barriers have enabled citrus growers in Central and South America to compete in U.S. markets.
Lemon production, exports and imports
USDA Citrus Fruits Summary. U.S. Census Bureau. Crop year is from August to July.
Orange production, exports and imports
USDA Citrus Fruits Summary. U.S. Census Bureau. Crop year is from October to September.
Tariff tracker - Tariff rates applied to U.S. trade partners are consistenly updated to reflect policy changes. The World Trade Organization (WTO) tracks duties and tariffs on lemons and oranges. For your convenience, the following links will take you to tariff data for South Korea (fresh oranges and mandarins/tangerines/satsumas) and Japan (fresh oranges and mandarins/tangerines/satsumas). Citrus fruits are currently exempt from tariffs with Canada under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), but please refer to the U.S. Trade Representative website for up-to-date information. WTO also tracks rates for lemon imports and orange imports to the U.S. Please consult with a trade lawyer or professional for detailed and up-to-date insights on tariff rates and their application to lemons and oranges.
For guidance on interpreting duty and tariff rates, please refer to our Tariff Guide.
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Lemon and Orange Industry Perspective
View the latest AgWest Lemon and Orange Industry Perspective.
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