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Lemon and orange updates
Orange prices rise significantly.
Navel harvest is wrapping up and prices finished the season out strong, rising 45% from late March lows. (Navel prices often rally in the second half of the season as supply winds down.) Initial estimates of crop size now appear overstated. Expectations for a larger crop may have reduced demand early in the season due to buyers waiting for lower prices. Strong prices are carrying over into the Valencia season, particularly for medium- to large-size fruit. The percentage of fruit going to fresh markets, or utilization rate, is high at about 80%. Orange exports are declining sharply as is typical for this time of year. Imports increased slightly in May, with gains from Peru and Chile offsetting declines from Morocco. California’s 2025 Valencia crop is estimated to come in at 15 million cartons, a 19% decline from last season. A smaller crop should help to support prices throughout the season.
Lemon harvest is wrapping up in the Central Valley and is in full swing in the coastal region of California. Fruit quality is good and there are reports of a small uptick in demand as some processors search out uncontracted supply. Prices are down year over year across all sizes. Reports suggest the lemon crop in Argentina, the largest foreign supplier to the U.S., is down about 10% from last season due to orchard removals and/or reduced fertilizer and herbicide applications. Lemon exports continued to fall in May due to declines to Japan. (Lemon exports typically peak in March before falling off.) Lemon imports from Argentina picked up slightly in May but are relatively weak for this time of year.
Profitability
June 18, 2025Lemons: Slightly unprofitable - Neutral 12-month outlook
Oranges: Slightly profitable - Neutral 12-month outlook
Lemon markets remain weak despite some improvement in prices in May. Production capacity is likely to continue exceeding demand over the next year.
A sharp rise in navel prices over the last two months has improved profitability for producers. Strong markets should continue to support prices over the next year.
Domestic markets make up the vast majority of lemon and orange demand, with exports only accounting for about 11% of total production. The largest foreign markets include Canada, South Korea, Mexico, Japan, and to a much lesser extent, Hong Kong. Lemon and orange imports have increased significantly over the last decade and make up 17% of total domestic supply, a relatively high amount compared to other specialty crops. Increased plantings coupled with low labor costs and minimal trade barriers have enabled citrus growers in Central and South America to compete in U.S. markets.
Lemon production, exports and imports
USDA Citrus Fruits Summary. U.S. Census Bureau. Crop year is from August to July.
Orange production, exports and imports
USDA Citrus Fruits Summary. U.S. Census Bureau. Crop year is from October to September.
Tariff tracker - Tariff rates applied to U.S. trade partners are consistenly updated to reflect policy changes. The World Trade Organization (WTO) tracks duties and tariffs on lemons and oranges. For your convenience, the following links will take you to tariff data for South Korea (fresh oranges and mandarins/tangerines/satsumas) and Japan (fresh oranges and mandarins/tangerines/satsumas). Citrus fruits are currently exempt from tariffs with Canada under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), but please refer to the U.S. Trade Representative website for up-to-date information. WTO also tracks rates for lemon imports and orange imports to the U.S. Please consult with a trade lawyer or professional for detailed and up-to-date insights on tariff rates and their application to lemons and oranges.
For guidance on interpreting duty and tariff rates, please refer to our Tariff Guide.
Lemon and orange updates
Orange prices rise significantly.
Navel harvest is wrapping up and prices finished the season out strong, rising 45% from late March lows. (Navel prices often rally in the second half of the season as supply winds down.) Initial estimates of crop size now appear overstated. Expectations for a larger crop may have reduced demand early in the season due to buyers waiting for lower prices. Strong prices are carrying over into the Valencia season, particularly for medium- to large-size fruit. The percentage of fruit going to fresh markets, or utilization rate, is high at about 80%. Orange exports are declining sharply as is typical for this time of year. Imports increased slightly in May, with gains from Peru and Chile offsetting declines from Morocco. California’s 2025 Valencia crop is estimated to come in at 15 million cartons, a 19% decline from last season. A smaller crop should help to support prices throughout the season.
Lemon harvest is wrapping up in the Central Valley and is in full swing in the coastal region of California. Fruit quality is good and there are reports of a small uptick in demand as some processors search out uncontracted supply. Prices are down year over year across all sizes. Reports suggest the lemon crop in Argentina, the largest foreign supplier to the U.S., is down about 10% from last season due to orchard removals and/or reduced fertilizer and herbicide applications. Lemon exports continued to fall in May due to declines to Japan. (Lemon exports typically peak in March before falling off.) Lemon imports from Argentina picked up slightly in May but are relatively weak for this time of year.
Profitability
June 18, 2025Lemons: Slightly unprofitable - Neutral 12-month outlook
Oranges: Slightly profitable - Neutral 12-month outlook
Lemon markets remain weak despite some improvement in prices in May. Production capacity is likely to continue exceeding demand over the next year.
A sharp rise in navel prices over the last two months has improved profitability for producers. Strong markets should continue to support prices over the next year.
Domestic markets make up the vast majority of lemon and orange demand, with exports only accounting for about 11% of total production. The largest foreign markets include Canada, South Korea, Mexico, Japan, and to a much lesser extent, Hong Kong. Lemon and orange imports have increased significantly over the last decade and make up 17% of total domestic supply, a relatively high amount compared to other specialty crops. Increased plantings coupled with low labor costs and minimal trade barriers have enabled citrus growers in Central and South America to compete in U.S. markets.
Lemon production, exports and imports
USDA Citrus Fruits Summary. U.S. Census Bureau. Crop year is from August to July.
Orange production, exports and imports
USDA Citrus Fruits Summary. U.S. Census Bureau. Crop year is from October to September.
Tariff tracker - Tariff rates applied to U.S. trade partners are consistenly updated to reflect policy changes. The World Trade Organization (WTO) tracks duties and tariffs on lemons and oranges. For your convenience, the following links will take you to tariff data for South Korea (fresh oranges and mandarins/tangerines/satsumas) and Japan (fresh oranges and mandarins/tangerines/satsumas). Citrus fruits are currently exempt from tariffs with Canada under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), but please refer to the U.S. Trade Representative website for up-to-date information. WTO also tracks rates for lemon imports and orange imports to the U.S. Please consult with a trade lawyer or professional for detailed and up-to-date insights on tariff rates and their application to lemons and oranges.
For guidance on interpreting duty and tariff rates, please refer to our Tariff Guide.
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Lemon and Orange Industry Perspective
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