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Wine grape updates
Inventory surplus persists as demand stays soft.
Wine markets continue to be characterized by falling consumption and excess bulk inventory levels. According to BW166 and NIQ, year-over-year off-premise and on-premise sales values fell in April by 4% and 2%, respectively. While the industry faces challenges, wineries who are proactive with reaching customers and/or serving higher end markets appear to be faring better than their counterparts.
Warm spring weather has led to early bud break across the West. While crops are progressing well overall, California and southern Oregon are likely to face some losses due to frost damage (the full extent remains unclear). USDA and the Washington Wine Institute released 2025 production data in May for California and Washington. California’s crop came in at in at 2.63 million tons (the lowest level since 1999), with notable declines in Zinfandel, French Colombard, Chardonnay, Cabernet Sauvignon, Pinot Noir and Merlot. Washington’s crop came in at 108 thousand tons (40% below the 5-year average), with the largest declines observed in Cabernet Sauvignon, White Riesling, Syrah and Merlot. With bulk wine inventories remaining high, production in 2026 is unlikely to rebound as growers continue to adapt to oversupplied markets by reducing and/or idling acreage.
Profitability
June 10, 2026Wine: Slightly unprofitable - Neutral 12-month outlook
Wine grapes: Slightly unprofitable - Neutral 12-month outlook
Wine demand continues to soften and pressure the industry, particularly in the lower- to mid-range segments.
Weak demand and excess bulk wine inventories continue to pressure wine grape producers.
The U.S. is the fourth largest New World (non-European) producer globally, it is the largest consumer, importing a third of its domestic supply. Key foreign suppliers include Italy, Canada, France, Australia, Chile and New Zealand. The U.S. exports 8% of its production, with about 50% split between the United Kingdom and Canada.
Wine production, exports and imports
Source: Wine Institute. U.S. Census Bureau.
Tariff tracker - Tariff rates applied to U.S. trade partners are consistenly updated to reflect policy changes. The World Trade Organization (WTO) tracks duties and tariffs on wine. For your convenience, the following link will take you to tariff data for the United Kingdom. Wine is currently exempt from tariffs for Canada under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), but please refer to the U.S. Trade Representative website for up-to-date information. WTO also tracks rates for wine imports to the U.S. Please consult with a trade lawyer or professional for detailed and up-to-date insights on tariff rates and their application to wine.
For guidance on interpreting duty and tariff rates, please refer to our Tariff Guide.
Wine grape updates
Inventory surplus persists as demand stays soft.
Wine markets continue to be characterized by falling consumption and excess bulk inventory levels. According to BW166 and NIQ, year-over-year off-premise and on-premise sales values fell in April by 4% and 2%, respectively. While the industry faces challenges, wineries who are proactive with reaching customers and/or serving higher end markets appear to be faring better than their counterparts.
Warm spring weather has led to early bud break across the West. While crops are progressing well overall, California and southern Oregon are likely to face some losses due to frost damage (the full extent remains unclear). USDA and the Washington Wine Institute released 2025 production data in May for California and Washington. California’s crop came in at in at 2.63 million tons (the lowest level since 1999), with notable declines in Zinfandel, French Colombard, Chardonnay, Cabernet Sauvignon, Pinot Noir and Merlot. Washington’s crop came in at 108 thousand tons (40% below the 5-year average), with the largest declines observed in Cabernet Sauvignon, White Riesling, Syrah and Merlot. With bulk wine inventories remaining high, production in 2026 is unlikely to rebound as growers continue to adapt to oversupplied markets by reducing and/or idling acreage.
Profitability
June 10, 2026Wine: Slightly unprofitable - Neutral 12-month outlook
Wine grapes: Slightly unprofitable - Neutral 12-month outlook
Wine demand continues to soften and pressure the industry, particularly in the lower- to mid-range segments.
Weak demand and excess bulk wine inventories continue to pressure wine grape producers.
The U.S. is the fourth largest New World (non-European) producer globally, it is the largest consumer, importing a third of its domestic supply. Key foreign suppliers include Italy, Canada, France, Australia, Chile and New Zealand. The U.S. exports 8% of its production, with about 50% split between the United Kingdom and Canada.
Wine production, exports and imports
Source: Wine Institute. U.S. Census Bureau.
Tariff tracker - Tariff rates applied to U.S. trade partners are consistenly updated to reflect policy changes. The World Trade Organization (WTO) tracks duties and tariffs on wine. For your convenience, the following link will take you to tariff data for the United Kingdom. Wine is currently exempt from tariffs for Canada under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), but please refer to the U.S. Trade Representative website for up-to-date information. WTO also tracks rates for wine imports to the U.S. Please consult with a trade lawyer or professional for detailed and up-to-date insights on tariff rates and their application to wine.
For guidance on interpreting duty and tariff rates, please refer to our Tariff Guide.
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