Wheat

Wheat updates

National supplies tighten as Pacific Northwest yields excel.

Earlier this year, concerns about the U.S. wheat crop intensified as drought conditions spread across key production regions. Those concerns ultimately materialized in the smallest U.S. wheat harvest in more than 50 years. National wheat production totaled just 1.53 billion bushels, down 23% from a year earlier due to widespread drought-driven abandonment and lower yields. Winter wheat was hit particularly hard, with production dropping to its lowest level since 1965. Spring wheat, durum wheat, and barley production also declined. Tight supplies have carried into the new marketing year, with Sept. 1 wheat stocks down 13.5% from the same time last year.

Despite the challenging national outlook, wheat producers across much of the Pacific Northwest benefited from a favorable growing season and harvested one of the region's strongest crops in recent years. Timely moisture and favorable growing conditions supported above-average yields across much of the region, although lower protein levels resulted in discounts for some soft white wheat. Washington led the region with average yields of 72.9 bushels per acre, nearly 10 bushels higher than in 2025, while Oregon and Montana also reported strong production. Idaho was the exception, with yields falling below the five-year average. Producers also benefited from relatively firm wheat prices, with Portland soft white wheat trading near $7.40 per bushel. Higher prices have provided some relief amid rising production expenses, particularly increased fuel costs. Market support has come largely from uncertainty surrounding the conflict in the Black Sea region, which remains a key driver of global wheat trade and price direction.

Looking ahead, export demand and developments in the Black Sea region will likely remain the primary drivers of wheat markets. While tighter U.S. supplies provide an underlying layer of support, abundant global production and aggressive competition from major exporters continue to cap price rallies. For Pacific Northwest producers, maintaining access to export markets and managing production costs will be critical to profitability. Although the region has benefited from strong yields and relatively favorable prices this year, margins remain sensitive to input costs and shifts in global market conditions.

Profitability

Producers remain near breakeven as wheat prices, while improved from recent lows, continue to lag production costs. Recent strength in wheat markets can be tied to geopolitical conflict in the Black Sea region. While global supply concerns have improved the outlook, many producers remain cautious.