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Concerns over dams diminished.
On June 12, federal agencies received a directive to withdraw from a memorandum that may have impacted the operations of several dams in the Pacific Northwest. The memorandum issued in September 2023, sought to restore fish populations in the Columbia River basin. As a potential measure to improve fish passage and habitat, the MOU outlined a framework to explore the possibility of altering or removing four key dams along the Lower Snake River in Eastern Washington. These dams play a critical role in grain transportation along the Snake and Columbia Rivers. A single barge traveling on these waterways can carry as much grain as 140 railcars. This capability allows wheat growers in the Northwest to transport large quantities of grain economically, maintaining their competitiveness in global export markets. Disruption of barge traffic would force greater reliance on rail and truck transport, which are more expensive and may lack the capacity to handle current volumes.
The 2025 wheat season in the Northwest shows mixed results. Most winter and spring wheat crops are rated in good to excellent condition, but persistent dry conditions may impact yields. In Washington, 63% of winter wheat and 56% of spring wheat is rated in good to excellent condition. However, hot, dry conditions and limited rainfall are stressing dryland wheat. Of note, growers in southeast Washington expect spring wheat yields to drop significantly. Similarly, while Oregon and Idaho report most of the wheat crop is in good to excellent condition, concerns persist about potential yield impacts if the region doesn’t see more rain soon.
The outlook in Montana is more concerning as dry conditions have hindered overall crop health. Only 2% of the state’s spring wheat is currently in good condition, with a substantial 41% rated as poor to very poor. Winter wheat is faring only slightly better, with 23% in poor or very poor condition. Severe storms have compounded crop challenges causing significant damage to fields and buildings in eastern Montana.
Profitability
June 18, 2025Wheat: Slightly unprofitable - Bearish 12-month outlook
Profitability remains under pressure despite good crop conditions, as low global prices and sluggish exports challenge margins.
There is intense global competition for wheat exports. The U.S. ranks among the top five wheat exporters worldwide, usually placing fourth or fifth, exporting nearly 40% of its wheat crop. Key destinations for U.S. wheat include Mexico, the Philippines, China, Japan and South Korea. However, export markets vary by wheat class. Most wheat grown in the western U.S. is shipped to Asia or Mexico. Durum wheat, predominantly grown in Arizona and eastern Montana, is primarily exported to Italy. Wheat imports to the U.S. are minimal, with most wheat imported from Canada.
Wheat production, exports and imports
Source: USDA National Agriculture Statistics Service. U.S. Census Bureau.
Tariff tracker - Tariff rates applied to U.S. trade partners are consistenly updated to reflect policy changes. The World Trade Organization (WTO) tracks duties and tariffs on wheat products. For your convenience, the following links will take you to tariff data on wheat excluding seed and durum (a leading U.S. export for the wheat industry) for top markets including the Philippines and Japan. Wheat is currently exempt from tariffs with Mexico and Canada under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), but please refer to the U.S. Trade Representative website for up-to-date information. WTO also tracks rates for wheat imports to the U.S. Please consult with a trade lawyer or professional for detailed and up-to-date insights on tariff rates and how they’re applied to wheat.
For guidance on interpreting duty and tariff rates, please refer to our Tariff Guide.
Wheat updates
Concerns over dams diminished.
On June 12, federal agencies received a directive to withdraw from a memorandum that may have impacted the operations of several dams in the Pacific Northwest. The memorandum issued in September 2023, sought to restore fish populations in the Columbia River basin. As a potential measure to improve fish passage and habitat, the MOU outlined a framework to explore the possibility of altering or removing four key dams along the Lower Snake River in Eastern Washington. These dams play a critical role in grain transportation along the Snake and Columbia Rivers. A single barge traveling on these waterways can carry as much grain as 140 railcars. This capability allows wheat growers in the Northwest to transport large quantities of grain economically, maintaining their competitiveness in global export markets. Disruption of barge traffic would force greater reliance on rail and truck transport, which are more expensive and may lack the capacity to handle current volumes.
The 2025 wheat season in the Northwest shows mixed results. Most winter and spring wheat crops are rated in good to excellent condition, but persistent dry conditions may impact yields. In Washington, 63% of winter wheat and 56% of spring wheat is rated in good to excellent condition. However, hot, dry conditions and limited rainfall are stressing dryland wheat. Of note, growers in southeast Washington expect spring wheat yields to drop significantly. Similarly, while Oregon and Idaho report most of the wheat crop is in good to excellent condition, concerns persist about potential yield impacts if the region doesn’t see more rain soon.
The outlook in Montana is more concerning as dry conditions have hindered overall crop health. Only 2% of the state’s spring wheat is currently in good condition, with a substantial 41% rated as poor to very poor. Winter wheat is faring only slightly better, with 23% in poor or very poor condition. Severe storms have compounded crop challenges causing significant damage to fields and buildings in eastern Montana.
Profitability
June 18, 2025Wheat: Slightly unprofitable - Bearish 12-month outlook
Profitability remains under pressure despite good crop conditions, as low global prices and sluggish exports challenge margins.
There is intense global competition for wheat exports. The U.S. ranks among the top five wheat exporters worldwide, usually placing fourth or fifth, exporting nearly 40% of its wheat crop. Key destinations for U.S. wheat include Mexico, the Philippines, China, Japan and South Korea. However, export markets vary by wheat class. Most wheat grown in the western U.S. is shipped to Asia or Mexico. Durum wheat, predominantly grown in Arizona and eastern Montana, is primarily exported to Italy. Wheat imports to the U.S. are minimal, with most wheat imported from Canada.
Wheat production, exports and imports
Source: USDA National Agriculture Statistics Service. U.S. Census Bureau.
Tariff tracker - Tariff rates applied to U.S. trade partners are consistenly updated to reflect policy changes. The World Trade Organization (WTO) tracks duties and tariffs on wheat products. For your convenience, the following links will take you to tariff data on wheat excluding seed and durum (a leading U.S. export for the wheat industry) for top markets including the Philippines and Japan. Wheat is currently exempt from tariffs with Mexico and Canada under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), but please refer to the U.S. Trade Representative website for up-to-date information. WTO also tracks rates for wheat imports to the U.S. Please consult with a trade lawyer or professional for detailed and up-to-date insights on tariff rates and how they’re applied to wheat.
For guidance on interpreting duty and tariff rates, please refer to our Tariff Guide.
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