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Almond and pistachio updates
Weather impacts both almond and pistachio crops.
Almond prices rallied in May due to strong inshell demand and the prospect of a smaller than average 2026 crop. Several crop estimates came in, with those from the private sector ranging from 2.66 to 2.69 billion pounds and USDA at 2.7 billion pounds. These are notably below the 5-year average of 2.752 billion pounds and driven by several factors. Many producers have removed acres and/or reduced cultural activities in response to weak margins. A lack of chill hours and variable spring weather has resulted in lower-than-average pollination rates due to rapid flower development and limited bee activity. Northern San Joaquin Valley appears to be faring better than the Southern region due to having younger orchards and better water access. Weak snowpack levels may limit reservoir recharge rates and result in reduced irrigation in Fresno, Kern, and Madera counties. Inventory levels are coming down at a solid pace and the carry-over into next season should be within normal levels. Strong inshell demand from India and China are also supporting the price rally. While higher prices support profitability, rising fuel and fertilizer costs will limit gains.
Pistachio prices jumped significantly in late May on the prospect of a very short 2026 crop. While it remains too early for official estimates, anecdotal reports suggest that production could be down by as much as 50% (approximately 750 million pounds). Excessive heat impacted bloom, pollination and nut set in both California and Arizona. Reports suggest Iran and Turkey, the second and third largest global producers, may also have small crops due to challenging weather conditions. Pistachio demand remains robust, and prices should continue to increase given the prospect of a very small crop.
Profitability
June 10,2026Almonds: Slightly profitable - Neutral 12-month outlook
Pistachios: Breakeven profitability - Neutral 12-month outlook
A smaller 2026 crop and average inventory carryover of the 2025 crop should support prices.
Challenging weather conditions may result in a very short 2026 crop. Producers with sufficient yields and/or crop insurance will fare better than their counterparts.
Exports are important to both almond and pistachio industries, making up 70% - 80% of domestic production. India has a long history of nut consumption and is the largest foreign market for almonds, taking almost exclusively in-shell nuts. China is the biggest market for pistachios, the result of a decade-long trend of younger generations shifting towards healthier diets. Europe has a long history of nut consumption and represents the second largest market for both U.S. almonds and pistachios. The Middle East is increasingly important due to rising demand in the United Arab Emirates and Turkey. The U.S. dominates global almond production, making it perhaps less sensitive to retaliatory tariffs than other specialty crops. The U.S. imports a very limited amount of almonds and pistachios.
Almond production, exports, carry-over and imports
Almond Board July Position Reports. U.S. Census Bureau. Crop year is from August to July.
Pistachio production, exports, carry-over and imports
Administrative Committee for Pistachios Shipment Reports. U.S. Census Bureau. Crop year is from September to August.
Tariff tracker - Tariff rates applied to U.S. trade partners are consistenly updated to reflect policy changes. The World Trade Organization (WTO) tracks duties and tariffs on almonds and pistachios. For your convenience, the following links will take you to data for top export markets, including India, China and European Union (shelled almonds and inshell pistachios). WTO also tracks rates for almond imports to the U.S. Please consult with a trade lawyer or professional for detailed and up-to-date insights on tariff rates and their application to almonds and pistachios.
For guidance on interpreting duty and tariff rates, please refer to our Tariff Guide.
Almond and pistachio updates
Weather impacts both almond and pistachio crops.
Almond prices rallied in May due to strong inshell demand and the prospect of a smaller than average 2026 crop. Several crop estimates came in, with those from the private sector ranging from 2.66 to 2.69 billion pounds and USDA at 2.7 billion pounds. These are notably below the 5-year average of 2.752 billion pounds and driven by several factors. Many producers have removed acres and/or reduced cultural activities in response to weak margins. A lack of chill hours and variable spring weather has resulted in lower-than-average pollination rates due to rapid flower development and limited bee activity. Northern San Joaquin Valley appears to be faring better than the Southern region due to having younger orchards and better water access. Weak snowpack levels may limit reservoir recharge rates and result in reduced irrigation in Fresno, Kern, and Madera counties. Inventory levels are coming down at a solid pace and the carry-over into next season should be within normal levels. Strong inshell demand from India and China are also supporting the price rally. While higher prices support profitability, rising fuel and fertilizer costs will limit gains.
Pistachio prices jumped significantly in late May on the prospect of a very short 2026 crop. While it remains too early for official estimates, anecdotal reports suggest that production could be down by as much as 50% (approximately 750 million pounds). Excessive heat impacted bloom, pollination and nut set in both California and Arizona. Reports suggest Iran and Turkey, the second and third largest global producers, may also have small crops due to challenging weather conditions. Pistachio demand remains robust, and prices should continue to increase given the prospect of a very small crop.
Profitability
June 10,2026Almonds: Slightly profitable - Neutral 12-month outlook
Pistachios: Breakeven profitability - Neutral 12-month outlook
A smaller 2026 crop and average inventory carryover of the 2025 crop should support prices.
Challenging weather conditions may result in a very short 2026 crop. Producers with sufficient yields and/or crop insurance will fare better than their counterparts.
Profitability
December 10, 2025Almonds: Slightly profitable - Neutral 12-month outlook
Pistachios: Profitable - Neutral 12-month outlook
A smaller than expected 2025 crop along with reasonably strong demand are supporting prices.
Demand remains strong and the 2025 crop has come in smaller than initial estimates, resulting in increasing prices.
Exports are important to both almond and pistachio industries, making up 70% - 80% of domestic production. India has a long history of nut consumption and is the largest foreign market for almonds, taking almost exclusively in-shell nuts. China is the biggest market for pistachios, the result of a decade-long trend of younger generations shifting towards healthier diets. Europe has a long history of nut consumption and represents the second largest market for both U.S. almonds and pistachios. The Middle East is increasingly important due to rising demand in the United Arab Emirates and Turkey. The U.S. dominates global almond production, making it perhaps less sensitive to retaliatory tariffs than other specialty crops. The U.S. imports a very limited amount of almonds and pistachios.
Almond production, exports, carry-over and imports
Almond Board July Position Reports. U.S. Census Bureau. Crop year is from August to July.
Pistachio production, exports, carry-over and imports
Administrative Committee for Pistachios Shipment Reports. U.S. Census Bureau. Crop year is from September to August.
Tariff tracker - Tariff rates applied to U.S. trade partners are consistenly updated to reflect policy changes. The World Trade Organization (WTO) tracks duties and tariffs on almonds and pistachios. For your convenience, the following links will take you to data for top export markets, including India, China and European Union (shelled almonds and inshell pistachios). WTO also tracks rates for almond imports to the U.S. Please consult with a trade lawyer or professional for detailed and up-to-date insights on tariff rates and their application to almonds and pistachios.
For guidance on interpreting duty and tariff rates, please refer to our Tariff Guide.
