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Almond and pistachio updates
Almond and pistachio markets are strong.
Almond prices strengthened in July due to strong export demand depleting 2025 crop inventories and increased expectations the 2026 crop will come in at average levels. Demand from India remained particularly strong ahead of Diwali. Buyers in the Middle East have also been active despite higher freight costs and logistics challenges due to the conflict in Iran. June shipments increased 14% year over year and current-crop sales rose 48%, signaling that demand has remained resilient even with rising prices. Warm spring weather accelerated crop development and harvest is beginning roughly one to three weeks earlier than normal in many areas. Yields and quality may vary widely by orchard based on nutrition and input management. (Many growers reduced inputs due to rising costs and low prices earlier in the season.) There are reports of red leaf blotch infections, a disease that can cause severe foliage damage if left untreated, throughout the Central Valley.
Pistachio prices softened in mid-July following a historic rise that started in May 2026. The industry faces one of the smallest crops in recent years after spring heat and pollination issues led to significantly reduced yields and widespread blanks (empty shells). Anecdotal reports suggest the crop will come in between 600 to 800 million pounds, 50% below last year, though it is too early to be certain. While higher prices should offset some of the production losses, some orchards may decide not to harvest. The sharp production shortfall, declining inventories and strong global demand are leading some to believe prices could continue to rise for the new crop.
Profitability
June 10, 2026Almonds: Slightly profitable - Neutral 12-month outlook
Pistachios: Breakeven profitability - Neutral 12-month outlook
A smaller 2026 crop and average inventory carryover of the 2025 crop should support prices.
Challenging weather conditions may result in a very short 2026 crop. Producers with sufficient yields and/or crop insurance will fare better than their counterparts.
Exports are important to both almond and pistachio industries, making up 70% - 80% of domestic production. India has a long history of nut consumption and is the largest foreign market for almonds, taking almost exclusively in-shell nuts. China is the biggest market for pistachios, the result of a decade-long trend of younger generations shifting towards healthier diets. Europe has a long history of nut consumption and represents the second largest market for both U.S. almonds and pistachios. The Middle East is increasingly important due to rising demand in the United Arab Emirates and Turkey. The U.S. dominates global almond production, making it perhaps less sensitive to retaliatory tariffs than other specialty crops. The U.S. imports a very limited amount of almonds and pistachios.
Almond production, exports, carry-over and imports
Almond Board July Position Reports. U.S. Census Bureau. Crop year is from August to July.
Pistachio production, exports, carry-over and imports
Administrative Committee for Pistachios Shipment Reports. U.S. Census Bureau. Crop year is from September to August.
Tariff tracker - Tariff rates applied to U.S. trade partners are consistenly updated to reflect policy changes. The World Trade Organization (WTO) tracks duties and tariffs on almonds and pistachios. For your convenience, the following links will take you to data for top export markets, including India, China and European Union (shelled almonds and inshell pistachios). WTO also tracks rates for almond imports to the U.S. Please consult with a trade lawyer or professional for detailed and up-to-date insights on tariff rates and their application to almonds and pistachios.
For guidance on interpreting duty and tariff rates, please refer to our Tariff Guide.
Almond and pistachio updates
Almond and pistachio markets are strong.
Almond prices strengthened in July due to strong export demand depleting 2025 crop inventories and increased expectations the 2026 crop will come in at average levels. Demand from India remained particularly strong ahead of Diwali. Buyers in the Middle East have also been active despite higher freight costs and logistics challenges due to the conflict in Iran. June shipments increased 14% year over year and current-crop sales rose 48%, signaling that demand has remained resilient even with rising prices. Warm spring weather accelerated crop development and harvest is beginning roughly one to three weeks earlier than normal in many areas. Yields and quality may vary widely by orchard based on nutrition and input management. (Many growers reduced inputs due to rising costs and low prices earlier in the season.) There are reports of red leaf blotch infections, a disease that can cause severe foliage damage if left untreated, throughout the Central Valley.
Pistachio prices softened in mid-July following a historic rise that started in May 2026. The industry faces one of the smallest crops in recent years after spring heat and pollination issues led to significantly reduced yields and widespread blanks (empty shells). Anecdotal reports suggest the crop will come in between 600 to 800 million pounds, 50% below last year, though it is too early to be certain. While higher prices should offset some of the production losses, some orchards may decide not to harvest. The sharp production shortfall, declining inventories and strong global demand are leading some to believe prices could continue to rise for the new crop.
Profitability
June 10, 2026Almonds: Slightly profitable - Neutral 12-month outlook
Pistachios: Breakeven profitability - Neutral 12-month outlook
A smaller 2026 crop and average inventory carryover of the 2025 crop should support prices.
Challenging weather conditions may result in a very short 2026 crop. Producers with sufficient yields and/or crop insurance will fare better than their counterparts.
Profitability
December 10, 2025Almonds: Slightly profitable - Neutral 12-month outlook
Pistachios: Profitable - Neutral 12-month outlook
A smaller than expected 2025 crop along with reasonably strong demand are supporting prices.
Demand remains strong and the 2025 crop has come in smaller than initial estimates, resulting in increasing prices.
Exports are important to both almond and pistachio industries, making up 70% - 80% of domestic production. India has a long history of nut consumption and is the largest foreign market for almonds, taking almost exclusively in-shell nuts. China is the biggest market for pistachios, the result of a decade-long trend of younger generations shifting towards healthier diets. Europe has a long history of nut consumption and represents the second largest market for both U.S. almonds and pistachios. The Middle East is increasingly important due to rising demand in the United Arab Emirates and Turkey. The U.S. dominates global almond production, making it perhaps less sensitive to retaliatory tariffs than other specialty crops. The U.S. imports a very limited amount of almonds and pistachios.
Almond production, exports, carry-over and imports
Almond Board July Position Reports. U.S. Census Bureau. Crop year is from August to July.
Pistachio production, exports, carry-over and imports
Administrative Committee for Pistachios Shipment Reports. U.S. Census Bureau. Crop year is from September to August.
Tariff tracker - Tariff rates applied to U.S. trade partners are consistenly updated to reflect policy changes. The World Trade Organization (WTO) tracks duties and tariffs on almonds and pistachios. For your convenience, the following links will take you to data for top export markets, including India, China and European Union (shelled almonds and inshell pistachios). WTO also tracks rates for almond imports to the U.S. Please consult with a trade lawyer or professional for detailed and up-to-date insights on tariff rates and their application to almonds and pistachios.
For guidance on interpreting duty and tariff rates, please refer to our Tariff Guide.
