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Almond and pistachio updates
Almond markets strengthened in October.
California almond markets strengthened in mid-October as lower crop expectations and stronger-than-anticipated September export demand supported prices. Reports continue to suggest the 2026 crop will come in at about 2.6 billion pounds, slightly below the 2025 crop. Smaller kernel sizes, lower moisture content, and lower Nonpareil production have been reported, while yields on pollinizer varieties, particularly Butte/Padre and California types, are coming in below expectations. While the Almond Board of California’s September position report showed crop receipts were up 23% from the same point last season, the increase largely reflects an earlier harvest rather than a larger crop. September shipments also increased strongly from a year earlier, driven largely by a surge in exports to India. Indian demand was supported by tight local supplies, delayed shipments, and buying in preparation for the Diwali holiday.
Pistachio prices continued to increase in October. The industry is facing a very short crop year, with current estimates between 600 and 700 million pounds, or roughly 55-60% below 2025 production. With rising prices, producer profitability will largely be determined by whether a producer has sufficient yields and/or crop insurance. The production decline reflects the alternate-bearing cycle compounded by adverse spring weather. Marketable inshell supply is even tighter, as smaller nut sizing and elevated blank and closed-shell rates have reduced the amount of premium open-inshell product available. Despite higher prices, exports remain strong. The Administrative Committee for Pistachios’ September shipment report showed exports increased 64% from September 2025, driven by gains to Vietnam, Europe, India, and Turkey.
Under the recent U.S.–China trade agreement, almonds and pistachios were included among U.S. products that may qualify for reduced Chinese tariff rates. While lower tariffs could improve direct market access for California producers, the net impact on total exports remains unclear, as traders commonly reroute product in response to changing trade policy.
Profitability
September 16, 2026Almonds: Slightly profitable - Neutral 12-month outlook
Pistachios: Breakeven profitability - Neutral 12-month outlook
Strong demand, low inventory carry-over and an estimated smaller 2026 crop has improved the supply and demand outlook.
Estimates for the 2026 pistachio crop suggest significant year-over-year production declines due to spring heat, low pollination and alternate bearing. With rising prices, profitability will largely be determined by whether a producer has sufficient yields and/or crop insurance.
Exports are important to both almond and pistachio industries, making up 70% - 80% of domestic production. India has a long history of nut consumption and is the largest foreign market for almonds, taking almost exclusively in-shell nuts. China is the biggest market for pistachios, the result of a decade-long trend of younger generations shifting towards healthier diets. Europe has a long history of nut consumption and represents the second largest market for both U.S. almonds and pistachios. The Middle East is increasingly important due to rising demand in the United Arab Emirates and Turkey. The U.S. dominates global almond production, making it perhaps less sensitive to retaliatory tariffs than other specialty crops. The U.S. imports a very limited amount of almonds and pistachios.
Almond production, exports, carry-over and imports
Almond Board July Position Reports. U.S. Census Bureau. Crop year is from August to July.
Pistachio production, exports, carry-over and imports
Administrative Committee for Pistachios Shipment Reports. U.S. Census Bureau. Crop year is from September to August.
Tariff tracker - Tariff rates applied to U.S. trade partners are consistenly updated to reflect policy changes. The World Trade Organization (WTO) tracks duties and tariffs on almonds and pistachios. For your convenience, the following links will take you to data for top export markets, including India, China and European Union (shelled almonds and inshell pistachios). WTO also tracks rates for almond imports to the U.S. Please consult with a trade lawyer or professional for detailed and up-to-date insights on tariff rates and their application to almonds and pistachios.
For guidance on interpreting duty and tariff rates, please refer to our Tariff Guide.
Almond and pistachio updates
Almond markets strengthened in October.
California almond markets strengthened in mid-October as lower crop expectations and stronger-than-anticipated September export demand supported prices. Reports continue to suggest the 2026 crop will come in at about 2.6 billion pounds, slightly below the 2025 crop. Smaller kernel sizes, lower moisture content, and lower Nonpareil production have been reported, while yields on pollinizer varieties, particularly Butte/Padre and California types, are coming in below expectations. While the Almond Board of California’s September position report showed crop receipts were up 23% from the same point last season, the increase largely reflects an earlier harvest rather than a larger crop. September shipments also increased strongly from a year earlier, driven largely by a surge in exports to India. Indian demand was supported by tight local supplies, delayed shipments, and buying in preparation for the Diwali holiday.
Pistachio prices continued to increase in October. The industry is facing a very short crop year, with current estimates between 600 and 700 million pounds, or roughly 55-60% below 2025 production. With rising prices, producer profitability will largely be determined by whether a producer has sufficient yields and/or crop insurance. The production decline reflects the alternate-bearing cycle compounded by adverse spring weather. Marketable inshell supply is even tighter, as smaller nut sizing and elevated blank and closed-shell rates have reduced the amount of premium open-inshell product available. Despite higher prices, exports remain strong. The Administrative Committee for Pistachios’ September shipment report showed exports increased 64% from September 2025, driven by gains to Vietnam, Europe, India, and Turkey.
Under the recent U.S.–China trade agreement, almonds and pistachios were included among U.S. products that may qualify for reduced Chinese tariff rates. While lower tariffs could improve direct market access for California producers, the net impact on total exports remains unclear, as traders commonly reroute product in response to changing trade policy.
Profitability
September 16, 2026Almonds: Slightly profitable - Neutral 12-month outlook
Pistachios: Breakeven profitability - Neutral 12-month outlook
Strong demand, low inventory carry-over and an estimated smaller 2026 crop has improved the supply and demand outlook.
Estimates for the 2026 pistachio crop suggest significant year-over-year production declines due to spring heat, low pollination and alternate bearing. With rising prices, profitability will largely be determined by whether a producer has sufficient yields and/or crop insurance.
Exports are important to both almond and pistachio industries, making up 70% - 80% of domestic production. India has a long history of nut consumption and is the largest foreign market for almonds, taking almost exclusively in-shell nuts. China is the biggest market for pistachios, the result of a decade-long trend of younger generations shifting towards healthier diets. Europe has a long history of nut consumption and represents the second largest market for both U.S. almonds and pistachios. The Middle East is increasingly important due to rising demand in the United Arab Emirates and Turkey. The U.S. dominates global almond production, making it perhaps less sensitive to retaliatory tariffs than other specialty crops. The U.S. imports a very limited amount of almonds and pistachios.
Almond production, exports, carry-over and imports
Almond Board July Position Reports. U.S. Census Bureau. Crop year is from August to July.
Pistachio production, exports, carry-over and imports
Administrative Committee for Pistachios Shipment Reports. U.S. Census Bureau. Crop year is from September to August.
Tariff tracker - Tariff rates applied to U.S. trade partners are consistenly updated to reflect policy changes. The World Trade Organization (WTO) tracks duties and tariffs on almonds and pistachios. For your convenience, the following links will take you to data for top export markets, including India, China and European Union (shelled almonds and inshell pistachios). WTO also tracks rates for almond imports to the U.S. Please consult with a trade lawyer or professional for detailed and up-to-date insights on tariff rates and their application to almonds and pistachios.
For guidance on interpreting duty and tariff rates, please refer to our Tariff Guide.
