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Apple updates
Apple prices hold steady.
Apple prices held relatively flat in May. Shipment levels for the 2025 crop have exceeded expectations and inventory carry-over into the 2026 marketing season should be near or slightly above average levels. While still too early for official estimates, anecdotal reports suggest the Northwest’s 2026 crop will be notably smaller than the last three years and closer to the historical average. Warm weather in March and frost events in April appear to have impacted fruit quality for producers in northern Washington. New York, the second-largest apple producer in the U.S., may also have a smaller-than-average 2026 crop,as frost events in April impacted many orchards. A smaller crop should help rebalance supply with demand and support prices and producer profitability next season. With a smaller crop, packer margins may tighten due to lower volume throughput. The Roza Irrigation District temporarily shut down to preserve water for later in the growing season. The degree to which limited water availability will impact growers depends on temperatures this summer. Excessive heat could further impact yields and fruit quality.
Harvest on the Northwest cherry crop started earlier than average and, while current estimates suggest total supply will come in at 18.4 million boxes, this is likely to fall due to frost damage and variable fruit set in northern Washington. Cherry growers in Central Valley, California are facing significant crop losses due to challenging weather conditions. There is little to no risk of significant overlap in harvest between California and the Northwest, which is supportive of prices. The 2026 pear crop is likely to come in at average levels and significantly below the 2025 crop, which was large. Most expect prices for pears and cherries to support break-even to slightly profitable conditions for producers.
Profitability
June 10, 2026Apple producers: Slightly unprofitable - Bullish 12-month outlook
Apple packers: Slightly profitable - Neutral 12-month outlook
Anecdotal reports suggest the 2026 crop will be notably smaller than the last three years and closer to the historical average. An average size crop is supportive of prices.
With a smaller 2026 apple crop, packer margins may tighten due to lower volume throughput.
While the bulk of apples produced in the U.S. is sold domestically, export markets are relatively important and make up anywhere from 15% to 20% of total production. Foreign markets are particularly important for older varieties that have fallen out of fashion in the U.S., namely Red and Golden Delicious. Mexico, Canada, Taiwan, Vietnam and India are the largest foreign markets. While Washington has a reputation for producing superior-quality fruit, exports are sensitive to trade policy given significant production levels from competitors in Europe, China, Chile and South Africa. Between 2021 and 2024, U.S. apple exports to India fell to near-zero levels due to retaliatory tariffs. Apple imports make up a very small portion of the total domestic supply.
Apple production, exports and imports
Source: USApple Outlook Reports.
Tariff tracker - Tariff rates applied to U.S. trade partners are consistenly updated to reflect policy changes. The World Trade Organization (WTO) tracks duties and tariffs on fresh apples. For your convenience, the following links will take you to tariff data for Vietnam and India. Apples are currently exempt from tariffs with Mexico and Canada under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), but please refer to the U.S. Trade Representative website for up-to-date information. WTO also tracks rates for apple imports to the U.S. Please consult with a trade lawyer or professional for detailed and up-to-date insights on tariff rates and their application to fresh apples.
For guidance on interpreting duty and tariff rates, please refer our Tariff Guide.
Apple updates
Apple prices hold steady.
Apple prices held relatively flat in May. Shipment levels for the 2025 crop have exceeded expectations and inventory carry-over into the 2026 marketing season should be near or slightly above average levels. While still too early for official estimates, anecdotal reports suggest the Northwest’s 2026 crop will be notably smaller than the last three years and closer to the historical average. Warm weather in March and frost events in April appear to have impacted fruit quality for producers in northern Washington. New York, the second-largest apple producer in the U.S., may also have a smaller-than-average 2026 crop,as frost events in April impacted many orchards. A smaller crop should help rebalance supply with demand and support prices and producer profitability next season. With a smaller crop, packer margins may tighten due to lower volume throughput. The Roza Irrigation District temporarily shut down to preserve water for later in the growing season. The degree to which limited water availability will impact growers depends on temperatures this summer. Excessive heat could further impact yields and fruit quality.
Harvest on the Northwest cherry crop started earlier than average and, while current estimates suggest total supply will come in at 18.4 million boxes, this is likely to fall due to frost damage and variable fruit set in northern Washington. Cherry growers in Central Valley, California are facing significant crop losses due to challenging weather conditions. There is little to no risk of significant overlap in harvest between California and the Northwest, which is supportive of prices. The 2026 pear crop is likely to come in at average levels and significantly below the 2025 crop, which was large. Most expect prices for pears and cherries to support break-even to slightly profitable conditions for producers.
Profitability
June 10, 2026Apple producers: Slightly unprofitable - Bullish 12-month outlook
Apple packers: Slightly profitable - Neutral 12-month outlook
Anecdotal reports suggest the 2026 crop will be notably smaller than the last three years and closer to the historical average. An average size crop is supportive of prices.
With a smaller 2026 apple crop, packer margins may tighten due to lower volume throughput.
While the bulk of apples produced in the U.S. is sold domestically, export markets are relatively important and make up anywhere from 15% to 20% of total production. Foreign markets are particularly important for older varieties that have fallen out of fashion in the U.S., namely Red and Golden Delicious. Mexico, Canada, Taiwan, Vietnam and India are the largest foreign markets. While Washington has a reputation for producing superior-quality fruit, exports are sensitive to trade policy given significant production levels from competitors in Europe, China, Chile and South Africa. Between 2021 and 2024, U.S. apple exports to India fell to near-zero levels due to retaliatory tariffs. Apple imports make up a very small portion of the total domestic supply.
Apple production, exports and imports
Source: USApple Outlook Reports.
Tariff tracker - Tariff rates applied to U.S. trade partners are consistenly updated to reflect policy changes. The World Trade Organization (WTO) tracks duties and tariffs on fresh apples. For your convenience, the following links will take you to tariff data for Vietnam and India. Apples are currently exempt from tariffs with Mexico and Canada under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), but please refer to the U.S. Trade Representative website for up-to-date information. WTO also tracks rates for apple imports to the U.S. Please consult with a trade lawyer or professional for detailed and up-to-date insights on tariff rates and their application to fresh apples.
For guidance on interpreting duty and tariff rates, please refer our Tariff Guide.
