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Apple updates
Early indications suggest a large 2025 crop, but several factors create uncertainty.
Prices strengthened slightly across several key varieties in June, including Cosmic Crisp at 7.7%, Honeycrisp at 6.4% and Fuji at 4.6%. Shipments-to-date are down year over year across most varieties except Cosmic Crisp and Cripps Pink. Total shipments are down 3.3% overall. Imports from Chile surged in May, which is typical for this time of year. Chilean production is on par with last season as higher yields offset a decline in acres. While preliminary estimates suggest the Northwest’s 2025 crop will be large, several factors may reduce actual harvest levels. These include a significant level of orchard removals as well as reduced pesticide and fertilizer application rates among some producers, and labor availability due to increased immigration enforcement. Additionally, water availability in the Roza Irrigation District will have localized impacts. Producers who scaled back pesticide and fertilizer rates, or reside in the Roza Irrigation District where water allocations fell, may experience some small, poor-quality fruit and/or additional pest pressures. Some growers in Yakima and Benton counties reported that a drop in temperatures in April may have slowed pollination and/or reduced fruit set. Temperatures at or above 100 degrees in early June may have impacted apple quality in certain growing areas, especially in the Roza Irrigation District. If a large crop does materialize despite these factors, strong domestic markets and a smaller overlap between crop cycles may help to support prices early in the 2025 marketing season.
Many expect the 2025 pear crop to come in large with good quality. Del Monte Foods closed a processing plant and two warehouses in Yakima, and this is expected to significantly lower local demand for Bartlett pears. (Bartletts are often canned rather than sold in fresh markets.) While some growers will look for other buyers, others are likely to remove and/or replant orchards.
The 2025 Northwest cherry crop is progressing well. Estimates suggest it could come in at 21.4 million 20-lb boxes, a 9% increase from last season. Northwest cherry prices started strong given solid demand and fruit quality as well as little overlap with California’s crop. Prices have since softened as the industry enters peak production in late June and July. Anecdotal reports suggest sourcing labor is more challenging than average. Visit our apples webpage for information on trade fundamentals and tariffs.
Profitability
June 18, 2025Apple producers: Slightly unprofitable (2024 crop) - Neutral 12-month outlook
Apple packers: Slightly profitable (2024 crop) - Neutral 12-month outlook
The large 2024 crop continues to weigh on prices for most varieties. Early indications suggest the 2025 crop could be large and again lead to a misalignment between supply and demand.
The large 2024 crop led to higher volume throughput for packers. Early indications suggest the 2025 crop could again be large, and this should continue to support profitability.
While the bulk of apples produced in the U.S. is sold domestically, export markets are relatively important and make up anywhere from 15% to 20% of total production. Foreign markets are particularly important for older varieties that have fallen out of fashion in the U.S., namely Red and Golden Delicious. Mexico, Canada, Taiwan, Vietnam and India are the largest foreign markets. While Washington has a reputation for producing superior-quality fruit, exports are sensitive to trade policy given significant production levels from competitors in Europe, China, Chile and South Africa. Between 2021 and 2024, U.S. apple exports to India fell to near-zero levels due to retaliatory tariffs. Apple imports make up a very small portion of the total domestic supply.
Apple production, exports and imports
Source: USApple Outlook Reports.
Tariff tracker - Tariff rates applied to U.S. trade partners are consistenly updated to reflect policy changes. The World Trade Organization (WTO) tracks duties and tariffs on fresh apples. For your convenience, the following links will take you to tariff data for Vietnam and India. Apples are currently exempt from tariffs with Mexico and Canada under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), but please refer to the U.S. Trade Representative website for up-to-date information. WTO also tracks rates for apple imports to the U.S. Please consult with a trade lawyer or professional for detailed and up-to-date insights on tariff rates and their application to fresh apples.
For guidance on interpreting duty and tariff rates, please refer our Tariff Guide.
Apple updates
Early indications suggest a large 2025 crop, but several factors create uncertainty.
Prices strengthened slightly across several key varieties in June, including Cosmic Crisp at 7.7%, Honeycrisp at 6.4% and Fuji at 4.6%. Shipments-to-date are down year over year across most varieties except Cosmic Crisp and Cripps Pink. Total shipments are down 3.3% overall. Imports from Chile surged in May, which is typical for this time of year. Chilean production is on par with last season as higher yields offset a decline in acres. While preliminary estimates suggest the Northwest’s 2025 crop will be large, several factors may reduce actual harvest levels. These include a significant level of orchard removals as well as reduced pesticide and fertilizer application rates among some producers, and labor availability due to increased immigration enforcement. Additionally, water availability in the Roza Irrigation District will have localized impacts. Producers who scaled back pesticide and fertilizer rates, or reside in the Roza Irrigation District where water allocations fell, may experience some small, poor-quality fruit and/or additional pest pressures. Some growers in Yakima and Benton counties reported that a drop in temperatures in April may have slowed pollination and/or reduced fruit set. Temperatures at or above 100 degrees in early June may have impacted apple quality in certain growing areas, especially in the Roza Irrigation District. If a large crop does materialize despite these factors, strong domestic markets and a smaller overlap between crop cycles may help to support prices early in the 2025 marketing season.
Many expect the 2025 pear crop to come in large with good quality. Del Monte Foods closed a processing plant and two warehouses in Yakima, and this is expected to significantly lower local demand for Bartlett pears. (Bartletts are often canned rather than sold in fresh markets.) While some growers will look for other buyers, others are likely to remove and/or replant orchards.
The 2025 Northwest cherry crop is progressing well. Estimates suggest it could come in at 21.4 million 20-lb boxes, a 9% increase from last season. Northwest cherry prices started strong given solid demand and fruit quality as well as little overlap with California’s crop. Prices have since softened as the industry enters peak production in late June and July. Anecdotal reports suggest sourcing labor is more challenging than average. Visit our apples webpage for information on trade fundamentals and tariffs.
Profitability
June 18, 2025Apple producers: Slightly unprofitable (2024 crop) - Neutral 12-month outlook
Apple packers: Slightly profitable (2024 crop) - Neutral 12-month outlook
The large 2024 crop continues to weigh on prices for most varieties. Early indications suggest the 2025 crop could be large and again lead to a misalignment between supply and demand.
The large 2024 crop led to higher volume throughput for packers. Early indications suggest the 2025 crop could again be large, and this should continue to support profitability.
While the bulk of apples produced in the U.S. is sold domestically, export markets are relatively important and make up anywhere from 15% to 20% of total production. Foreign markets are particularly important for older varieties that have fallen out of fashion in the U.S., namely Red and Golden Delicious. Mexico, Canada, Taiwan, Vietnam and India are the largest foreign markets. While Washington has a reputation for producing superior-quality fruit, exports are sensitive to trade policy given significant production levels from competitors in Europe, China, Chile and South Africa. Between 2021 and 2024, U.S. apple exports to India fell to near-zero levels due to retaliatory tariffs. Apple imports make up a very small portion of the total domestic supply.
Apple production, exports and imports
Source: USApple Outlook Reports.
Tariff tracker - Tariff rates applied to U.S. trade partners are consistenly updated to reflect policy changes. The World Trade Organization (WTO) tracks duties and tariffs on fresh apples. For your convenience, the following links will take you to tariff data for Vietnam and India. Apples are currently exempt from tariffs with Mexico and Canada under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), but please refer to the U.S. Trade Representative website for up-to-date information. WTO also tracks rates for apple imports to the U.S. Please consult with a trade lawyer or professional for detailed and up-to-date insights on tariff rates and their application to fresh apples.
For guidance on interpreting duty and tariff rates, please refer our Tariff Guide.
