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Cattle updates
Slight softening in cash prices.
USDA's June report noted a 1.2% drop in cattle on feed from the previous year, highlighting bullish industry trends. This decline stems from the continued tight supply of feeder cattle. As a result, fed cattle marketings also dropped 10.1%. Despite the U.S. cattle herd reaching historic lows, cash cattle prices experienced slight declines. Northern dressed cattle prices fell by $10 during the final week of June. This is most likely due to temporary softening in demand attributed to packers having adequate supplies on hand and reduced processing schedules due to the July 4th holiday. Even with these temporary declines, cattle prices remain close to record highs.
Consumers remain resilient and meat demand has remained strong despite record-high retail prices. The all-fresh retail beef price reached a peak of $8.50 per pound in the spring. Meanwhile, U.S. beef exports faced challenges. Export volumes were down 11% year over year in May. Exports to China were particularly impacted, dropping 90% compared to the previous year. Many U.S. beef processors remain ineligible to export to China due to expired registrations with the General Administration of Customs of China, a barrier that continues to severely limit export opportunities regardless of tariffs.
Profitability
June 18, 2025Cattle feeders: Profitable - Bearish 12-month outlook
Cow-calf producers Profitable - Bullish 12-month outlook
Although fed cattle prices remain strong and feed costs are expected to remain affordable in the near term, returns are anticipated to tighten in the fall of 2025 as feeder cattle prices continue to climb due to limited available supplies.
Record cattle prices, driven by a shrinking herd, are fueling strong profits in 2025, while lower feed costs are expected to persist in the near term.
Exports play a key role in driving demand for U.S. beef, with 12% of production exported. Major export destinations include Japan, South Korea, China, Mexico and Canada. Exports also increase the value of beef byproducts, including variety meats (e.g., tongue, cheek meat, hearts) along with tallow and hides, which have limited demand domestically. The higher prices and increased sales of these items boost overall live cattle values and improve packers' margins.
Beef imports primarily consist of lean processing beef used in ground beef to meet domestic consumer demand. Over the past decade, U.S. imports of fresh or chilled beef have more than doubled. Given the tight domestic cattle supply, beef imports are important to meeting consumer demand for beef.
Beef production, exports and imports
USDA Livestock and Meat International Trade Data.
Tariff tracker - Tariff rates applied to U.S. trade partners are consistenly updated to reflect policy changes. The World Trade Organization (WTO) tracks duties and tariffs on beef products and live cattle by country. For your convenience, the following links will take you to tariff data on fresh or chilled bovine meat (a leading U.S. export for the cattle industry) for top markets including South Korea and China. Beef products are currently exempt from tariffs for Mexico and Canada under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), but please refer to the U.S. Trade Representative website for up-to-date information. WTO also tracks rates for beef imports to the U.S. Please consult with a trade lawyer or professional for detailed and up-to-date insights on tariff rates and their application to cattle.
For guidance on interpreting duty and tariff rates, please refer to our Tariff Guide.
Cattle updates
Slight softening in cash prices.
USDA's June report noted a 1.2% drop in cattle on feed from the previous year, highlighting bullish industry trends. This decline stems from the continued tight supply of feeder cattle. As a result, fed cattle marketings also dropped 10.1%. Despite the U.S. cattle herd reaching historic lows, cash cattle prices experienced slight declines. Northern dressed cattle prices fell by $10 during the final week of June. This is most likely due to temporary softening in demand attributed to packers having adequate supplies on hand and reduced processing schedules due to the July 4th holiday. Even with these temporary declines, cattle prices remain close to record highs.
Consumers remain resilient and meat demand has remained strong despite record-high retail prices. The all-fresh retail beef price reached a peak of $8.50 per pound in the spring. Meanwhile, U.S. beef exports faced challenges. Export volumes were down 11% year over year in May. Exports to China were particularly impacted, dropping 90% compared to the previous year. Many U.S. beef processors remain ineligible to export to China due to expired registrations with the General Administration of Customs of China, a barrier that continues to severely limit export opportunities regardless of tariffs.
Profitability
June 18, 2025Cattle feeders: Profitable - Bearish 12-month outlook
Cow-calf producers Profitable - Bullish 12-month outlook
Although fed cattle prices remain strong and feed costs are expected to remain affordable in the near term, returns are anticipated to tighten in the fall of 2025 as feeder cattle prices continue to climb due to limited available supplies.
Record cattle prices, driven by a shrinking herd, are fueling strong profits in 2025, while lower feed costs are expected to persist in the near term.
Exports play a key role in driving demand for U.S. beef, with 12% of production exported. Major export destinations include Japan, South Korea, China, Mexico and Canada. Exports also increase the value of beef byproducts, including variety meats (e.g., tongue, cheek meat, hearts) along with tallow and hides, which have limited demand domestically. The higher prices and increased sales of these items boost overall live cattle values and improve packers' margins.
Beef imports primarily consist of lean processing beef used in ground beef to meet domestic consumer demand. Over the past decade, U.S. imports of fresh or chilled beef have more than doubled. Given the tight domestic cattle supply, beef imports are important to meeting consumer demand for beef.
Beef production, exports and imports
USDA Livestock and Meat International Trade Data.
Tariff tracker - Tariff rates applied to U.S. trade partners are consistenly updated to reflect policy changes. The World Trade Organization (WTO) tracks duties and tariffs on beef products and live cattle by country. For your convenience, the following links will take you to tariff data on fresh or chilled bovine meat (a leading U.S. export for the cattle industry) for top markets including South Korea and China. Beef products are currently exempt from tariffs for Mexico and Canada under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), but please refer to the U.S. Trade Representative website for up-to-date information. WTO also tracks rates for beef imports to the U.S. Please consult with a trade lawyer or professional for detailed and up-to-date insights on tariff rates and their application to cattle.
For guidance on interpreting duty and tariff rates, please refer to our Tariff Guide.
