In the News

This month AgWest launched new tariff and trade resources to help the agricultural community understand the impact of global trade policies on each commodity in the report. Trade and tariff data can be found at the top of each industry page.

This month’s report also includes a Spotlight article on how some states are responding to tariffs, a Profitability Report, Economic headlines and Data and trends.

Major commodity insights

Almonds and pistachios

Almond prices have softened, but remain significantly up year over year. USDA’s initial estimate for the 2025 almond crop came in slightly above estimates at 2.8 billion pounds and international demand has weakened.

Apples

Early indications suggest a large 2025 crop, particularly for the Honeycrisp variety, and this will simultaneously weigh on producer profitability while supporting packer profitability.

Cattle

Cattle are staying on feed longer as the cost of grain is more economical than selling lighter cattle. While dressed weights are helping offset tighter supplies, the industry may need adjustments to address a shrinking cattle inventory.

Dairy

U.S. milk production has risen for four straight months, boosted by better producer margins and more processing capacity. However, strong beef prices are limiting replacement heifers, posing challenges for producers.

Forest products

The housing market remains weak, pressuring both softwood lumber and log markets. Prices support slightly profitable levels for producers and this is likely to continue over the next year.

Hay

Hay prices in the West are stable, but markets remain sluggish. China, the second-largest buyer of U.S. hay, has cut imports due to ongoing tariff negotiations.

Lemons and oranges

Navel orange prices saw a 20% increase over the last two months due to falling supply and an uptick in demand. The Valencia season is getting under way and producers should benefit from strong early-season prices.

Potatoes

Crop development is ahead of schedule, with most of the new crop in good to excellent condition. However, weak domestic demand driven by reduced restaurant traffic may create headwinds for potato sales.

Wheat

The new wheat crop is in good condition, but low prices and export uncertainty pose challenges for producers.

Wine and wine grapes

Favorable weather in the Western U.S. points to high-yielding, good quality wine grape crops in 2025, but oversupplied markets are driving growers to remove acreage and minimize production.