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Hay updates
Western producers see price improvements, but water and weather remain the wild cards.
New-crop hay prices have generally strengthened across the West in 2026, with demand increasing in drought-affected regions as ranchers secure forage supplies ahead of fall and winter. Hay prices have risen by $20 per ton across many Western markets, despite weaker milk prices and reduced export demand. Tight carryover inventories, multi-decade-low alfalfa acreage, frost damage and water restrictions have all contributed to stronger prices. Weather conditions will remain a key factor influencing hay as harvest progresses. Export demand remains pressured. Through the first of the year, U.S. hay exports were down 8.2% from the previous year, a concerning trend given that 2025 marked the lowest annual export volume in 16 years. Alfalfa exports declined in every month of 2026, with the largest year-over-year decline occurring in March (24.4%) and June (20.4%). Ongoing geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East, coupled with a relatively strong U.S. dollar, have reduced the competitiveness of U.S. hay in international markets and are weighing on export demand.
At the same time, domestic demand has become increasingly uneven. Record milk production has pressured milk prices, pushing Class III milk futures below $17 per cwt at times and leaving many dairies operating hand-to-mouth. In contrast, hay demand from cattle producers has largely increased given concerns about growing drought conditions.
Conditions by state:
Arizona
Alfalfa prices for fair and good-quality hay have remained relatively steady. Hot weather during June and July created quality challenges in some production areas and could impact late-season supplies.
California
Alfalfa prices in Central California have improved by $20 per ton over the past several months for both premium and fair-quality hay. In the Imperial Valley, fair-quality hay has seen the largest price gains, while premium and supreme grades have remained relatively unchanged. Softening milk prices have left many dairies cautiously purchasing hay, while brokers sourcing hay from neighboring states are struggling to compete with local demand. Supplies of high-quality alfalfa remain tight, and reduction of hay acreage and elevated production costs have also encouraged growers to seek higher prices.
Idaho
Hay prices have strengthened significantly, with alfalfa values across most quality grades increasing roughly $40 per ton over the past 90 days. Frost damage and strong ranch demand have supported the market. As premiums for higher-quality hay have narrowed, some growers are prioritizing yield over quality by extending cutting intervals. Potential water curtailments remain a concern for the remainder of the growing season.
Montana
Hay markets largely reflect local needs. Drought-stricken areas continue to command stronger prices due to limited availability, while growers in regions with access to imported hay from Canada and the Dakotas face greater competition. Many growers report that much of their crop is already committed, though final prices have not yet been established. Timely rainfall has improved pasture and rangeland conditions in many areas, helping prevent more severe forage shortages.
Oregon
Drought conditions and wildfires have intensified in portions of Oregon, though harvest activity continues across much of the state. Eastern Oregon producers have largely completed first cutting. Demand for new-crop hay has been strong, with buyers already securing supplies directly from producers. Market participants continue to monitor drought impacts as the season progresses.
Washington
Alfalfa prices in the Columbia Basin have increased modestly, rising approximately $10 per ton since spring. However, weaker export demand has caused Columbia Basin prices to lag behind neighboring states. Reduced dairy demand has also played a role, as Washington's dairy herd has contracted notably over the past two years. Timothy hay quality has been reported as average, while prices remain elevated near year-ago levels. Because timothy acreage expanded this season, producers believe the larger crop could create downward pressure on prices later in the year.
Profitability
June 10, 2026Hay (alfalfa): Slightly profitable - Bullish 12-month outlook
Hay (timothy): Slightly profitable - Neutral 12-month outlook
Tightening Western supplies and an expected reduction in hay production are helping rebalance the market, while increasing drought concerns are driving stronger domestic demand and improving alfalfa prices.
Sustained export demand, limited high-quality supply and steady forage demand are supporting timothy hay profitability despite higher production and logistics costs.
Exports make up 31% of the West Coast’s total hay production and about 3.1% of U.S. hay production. Higher quality hay is typically allocated for export markets, as these markets demand superior products and are willing to pay a premium for them. Key export destinations for West Coast hay producers include Japan, China, South Korea and Saudi Arabia. Long-standing markets like Japan and South Korea have remained stable over the years, providing consistent demand. Meanwhile, newer markets such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have shown significant growth, though they continue to be volatile.
China became the largest export market for West Coast hay in 2021, holding that spot through 2023. However, by 2024, China’s slowing economy and government initiatives to reduce dairy herds resulted in a sharp decline in hay imports, with reduced purchases expected to persist in the near term.
Hay imports for West Coast livestock producers are minimal, with most of them sourced from Canada.
Hay production, exports and imports
USDA National Agriculture Statistics Service. U.S. Census Bureau.
Tariff tracker - Tariff rates applied to U.S. trade partners are consistenly updated to reflect policy changes. The World Trade Organization (WTO) tracks duties and tariffs on hay and forages. For your convenience, the following links will take you to tariff data on alfalfa hay (a leading U.S. export for the hay industry) for top markets including Japan, South Korea and China. WTO also tracks rates for hay imports to the U.S. Please consult with a trade lawyer or professional for detailed and up-to-date insights on tariff rates and their application to hay.
For guidance on interpreting duty and tariff rates, please refer to our Tariff Guide.
Hay updates
Western producers see price improvements, but water and weather remain the wild cards.
New-crop hay prices have generally strengthened across the West in 2026, with demand increasing in drought-affected regions as ranchers secure forage supplies ahead of fall and winter. Hay prices have risen by $20 per ton across many Western markets, despite weaker milk prices and reduced export demand. Tight carryover inventories, multi-decade-low alfalfa acreage, frost damage and water restrictions have all contributed to stronger prices. Weather conditions will remain a key factor influencing hay as harvest progresses. Export demand remains pressured. Through the first of the year, U.S. hay exports were down 8.2% from the previous year, a concerning trend given that 2025 marked the lowest annual export volume in 16 years. Alfalfa exports declined in every month of 2026, with the largest year-over-year decline occurring in March (24.4%) and June (20.4%). Ongoing geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East, coupled with a relatively strong U.S. dollar have reduced the competitiveness of U.S. hay in international markets and are weighing on export demand.
At the same time, domestic demand has become increasingly uneven. Record milk production has pressured milk prices, pushing Class III milk futures below $17 per cwt at times and leaving many dairies operating hand-to-mouth. In contrast, hay demand from cattle producers has largely increased given concerns about growing drought conditions.
Conditions by state:
Arizona
Alfalfa prices for fair and good-quality hay have remained relatively steady. Hot weather during June and July created quality challenges in some production areas and could impact late-season supplies.
California
Alfalfa prices in Central California have improved by $20 per ton over the past several months for both premium and fair-quality hay. In the Imperial Valley, fair-quality hay has seen the largest price gains, while premium and supreme grades have remained relatively unchanged. Softening milk prices have left many dairies cautiously purchasing hay, while brokers sourcing hay from neighboring states are struggling to compete with local demand. Supplies of high-quality alfalfa remain tight, and reduction of hay acreage and elevated production costs have also encouraged growers to seek higher prices.
Idaho
Hay prices have strengthened significantly, with alfalfa values across most quality grades increasing roughly $40 per ton over the past 90 days. Frost damage and strong ranch demand have supported the market. As premiums for higher-quality hay have narrowed, some growers are prioritizing yield over quality by extending cutting intervals. Potential water curtailments remain a concern for the remainder of the growing season.
Montana
Hay markets largely reflect local needs. Drought-stricken areas continue to command stronger prices due to limited availability, while growers in regions with access to imported hay from Canada and the Dakotas face greater competition. Many growers report that much of their crop is already committed, though final prices have not yet been established. Timely rainfall has improved pasture and rangeland conditions in many areas, helping prevent more severe forage shortages.
Oregon
Drought conditions and wildfires have intensified in portions of Oregon, though harvest activity continues across much of the state. Eastern Oregon producers have largely completed first cutting. Demand for new-crop hay has been strong, with buyers already securing supplies directly from producers. Market participants continue to monitor drought impacts as the season progresses.
Washington
Alfalfa prices in the Columbia Basin have increased modestly, rising approximately $10 per ton since spring. However, weaker export demand has caused Columbia Basin prices to lag behind neighboring states. Reduced dairy demand has also played a role, as Washington's dairy herd has contracted notably over the past two years. Timothy hay quality has been reported as average, while prices remain elevated near year-ago levels. Because timothy acreage expanded this season, producers believe the larger crop could create downward pressure on prices later in the year.
Profitability
June 10, 2026Hay (alfalfa): Slightly profitable - Bullish 12-month outlook
Hay (timothy): Slightly profitable - Neutral 12-month outlook
Tightening Western supplies and an expected reduction in hay production are helping rebalance the market, while increasing drought concerns are driving stronger domestic demand and improving alfalfa prices.
Sustained export demand, limited high-quality supply and steady forage demand are supporting timothy hay profitability despite higher production and logistics costs.
Exports make up 31% of the West Coast’s total hay production and about 3.1% of U.S. hay production. Higher quality hay is typically allocated for export markets, as these markets demand superior products and are willing to pay a premium for them. Key export destinations for West Coast hay producers include Japan, China, South Korea and Saudi Arabia. Long-standing markets like Japan and South Korea have remained stable over the years, providing consistent demand. Meanwhile, newer markets such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have shown significant growth, though they continue to be volatile.
China became the largest export market for West Coast hay in 2021, holding that spot through 2023. However, by 2024, China’s slowing economy and government initiatives to reduce dairy herds resulted in a sharp decline in hay imports, with reduced purchases expected to persist in the near term.
Hay imports for West Coast livestock producers are minimal, with most of them sourced from Canada.
Hay production, exports and imports
USDA National Agriculture Statistics Service. U.S. Census Bureau.
Tariff tracker - Tariff rates applied to U.S. trade partners are consistenly updated to reflect policy changes. The World Trade Organization (WTO) tracks duties and tariffs on hay and forages. For your convenience, the following links will take you to tariff data on alfalfa hay (a leading U.S. export for the hay industry) for top markets including Japan, South Korea and China. WTO also tracks rates for hay imports to the U.S. Please consult with a trade lawyer or professional for detailed and up-to-date insights on tariff rates and their application to hay.
For guidance on interpreting duty and tariff rates, please refer to our Tariff Guide.
