In the News

The update features unique insights into economic drivers impacting agriculture and forestry in the West.

This month’s report includes a Spotlight feature on fertilizer prices. Additional releases this month include AgWest’s Quarterly Economic Update.

Major commodity insights

AgWest’s outlook for major commodities is summarized below. Visit AgWest’s Industry Insights for an expanded analysis of each industry, monthly economic headlines, relevant data and trends, and additional special reports. Or download a PDF of the complete report here.

Almonds and pistachios

Almond prices reversed their upward momentum and started to decline mid-way through September. Inventory of the 2025 crop is building and international buyers are increasingly cautious about overcommitting given current prices.  

Apples

Harvest continues for the 2025 crop. There is an increasing sense that the crop size will come in below the forecasted 142 million boxes, though to what degree remains unclear. The 2025 pear crop is forecasted to come at 16.8 million boxes, a nearly 60% increase from 2024 levels and aligned with the historical average. 

Cattle

Cattle markets remain bullish despite seasonal softening in fed cattle prices in late September. Domestic cattle and beef supplies remain tight and are expected to tighten further in the coming months. 

Dairy

Increases in U.S. milk production, driven by unprecedented herd expansion, have been bearish for milk prices. Dairy markets have also been bearish. While butter and cheese exports have been a bright spot for U.S. dairy in recent months, falling prices in global markets are challenging U.S. export competitiveness. 

Forest products

Average lumber prices fell another 8% in September, with declines seen in both green Douglas fir and Southern Yellow Pine. Douglas fir and whitewood log prices also fell in August, marking their fourth consecutive monthly decline. 

Hay

Hay prices are currently depressed due to oversupply and low demand. Water concerns remain top of mind for growers with water allocation negotiations ongoing. 

Lemons and oranges

Lemon prices remain steady and fruit quality generally good. Harvest is wrapping up in the Coastal Region of California and picking up in the Desert Region. For oranges, the 2025-26 navel and mandarin crop forecasts came in at 80 million cartons and 33 million cartons, respectively. 

Potatoes

Potato harvest is underway across the West, and the plentiful crop will likely keep returns below production costs for many growers.

Wheat

Wheat prices remain significantly low, creating a challenging outlook for growers across the West. Both the USDA projected farm price and wheat futures continue to weaken due to the impact of a large global crop.

Wine and wine grapes

Wine grape crops are progressing differently across the West, but look to be coming in smaller than average due to reduced acreage and a higher percentage of minimally managed vineyards in California and Washington.