In the News

The update features unique insights into economic drivers impacting agriculture and forestry in the West.

This month’s report includes a Spotlight on interest rate trends—in advance of the Fed’s anticipated rate cuts later this year—and data and trends presenting select economic indicators. Additional releases this month include AgWest’s quarterly Profitability Report.

Major commodity insights

AgWest’s outlook for major commodities is summarized below. Visit AgWest’s Industry Insights for an expanded analysis of each industry, monthly economic headlines, relevant data and trends, and additional special reports. Or download a PDF of the complete report here.

Almonds and pistachios

Following a sharp drop in July, almond prices rebounded strongly due to several factors. Early reports suggest a smaller than average size profile and proportionally larger husks than kernels. Pistachio harvest is also underway and crop quality is looking favorable. Kernal demand is strong, driven largely by the recent Dubai Chocolate trend, and low 2024 inventory carryover should benefit a potentially record 2025 crop size.

Apples

Apple harvest is underway and quality appears mixed. Producers are facing challenges with the 2025 crop maturing more quickly and a shortage of labor to complete the harvest.

Cattle

Tighter cattle supplies are driving prices higher across feeder and cow markets, suggesting cattle producers may continue to ride a bull market. The ban on live cattle exports from Mexico continues as tensions rise following a case of New World Screwworm (NWS) reported in Maryland in late August.

Dairy

U.S. milk production saw significant growth in July 2025, increasing by 3.4% compared to the same month last year. Class III milk prices are depressed, with futures remaining below $18 per cwt. Class IV futures are similarly projected at $17 per cwt.

Forest products

Lumber demand is weak, and trader sentiment appears to be worsening, with average lumber prices falling 9.5% in August. Log prices also declined across the West in July as excess mill log inventories and weak wood products markets reduced demand.

Hay

Alfalfa hay prices started the new crop year lower than the previous year, increasing financial strain on hay growers and signaling the likelihood of low prices throughout the year. Western alfalfa prices are on average $5 to $10 per ton lower than 2024’s prices.

Lemons and oranges

Lemon harvest is wrapping up and prices have improved—particularly among larger fruit sizes—but conditions remain challenging for many producers. Prices for fresh oranges are tracking fairly closely to 2024 levels, which is supportive of profitability. Prices for orange juice remain well above their historical average.

Potatoes

The 2025 potato crop is on track for strong yields, thanks to timely planting and favorable weather throughout the season. Despite reduced contract volumes from processors leading to fewer planted acres, potato production in the Northwest is expected to remain steady year over year.

Wheat

Despite lower-than-expected prices, the winter wheat harvest in Montana and the Pacific Northwest yielded a better-than-expected crop due to consistent rainfall. In contrast, the spring wheat crop struggled with prolonged drought and heat, resulting in lower test weights and a smaller crop.

Wine and wine grapes

Harvest of the 2025 crops is starting across the West. Some growers face increased pest pressures, smoke taint and sunburn, though the full extent of damage remains unknown. Wine sales continue to come in below last season, with off-premise sales value down 7% year over year, on-premise sales down 2% and Direct-to-Consumer (DtC) sales down 11%.