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Forest product updates
Housing market remains constrained by low affordability.
Random Lengths’ Composite Lumber Index increased 8.4% to $532 in July due to tight supply conditions. The housing market remains constrained due to low home buyer affordability. Spending on residential construction continued to fall for the third straight month in June. While listing prices are down 2.4% year over year on average across the country, mortgage rates surged in July as rising geopolitical tensions and inflation risk pushed long-term Treasury bond yields up. (Mortgage rates are closely correlated to long-term Treasury yields.) Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies recently reported that remodeling permitting and retail spending on building products have flattened recently, and that this trend is likely to continue through mid-2027. Residential repair and improvements represent the largest demand driver for lumber in the U.S.
Log markets remained relatively stable in July, supported by steady mill demand and adequate inventories. The latest annual survey of loggers done by Timber Harvesting showed that 85% of loggers reported being impacted by mill closures, particularly among those for pulp and paper. Oregon's Board of Forestry approved a new Western Oregon State Forests Management Plan that places greater emphasis on habitat conservation, water quality, and climate resilience. When combined with the state's pending Habitat Conservation Plan, the changes are expected to reduce timber harvest volumes from Oregon state forests over time. In Washington, an expanded non-fish-bearing stream-buffer rule remains on track to take effect August 31 and could reduce harvestable timber volumes on some private timberlands. USDA announced $80 million in financing support aimed at expanding domestic timber production capacity and forest-product processing facilities, including projects in Oregon. Investment goals include expanding U.S. timber production, reducing wildfire risk and strengthening domestic sawmill infrastructure.
Profitability
June 10, 2026Forest product mills: Breakeven profitability - Neutral 12-month outlook
Timberlands: Slightly profitable - Neutral 12-month outlook
Low homeowner affordability continues to weigh on the housing market, resulting in relatively weak wood product demand and prices.
Log demand is limited as wood product mills face a weak housing market.
The U.S. housing market is the primary driver of forest products demand. Log and lumber exports play a relatively minor role, making up about 6% and 3% of total domestic production, respectively. On the West Coast, log producers have historically benefited from strong Japanese demand for high-quality grades. Following the Great Recession, demand from China increased significantly to support housing construction. These trends are reversing due to aging demographics and weakening economies. The Softwood Lumber Agreement sets the terms for Canadian lumber exports to the U.S., which make up about a quarter of total domestic supply.
Log production, exports and imports
Forisk. U.S. Census Bureau. Production levels were calculated using region specific recovery rates. Trade data was converted using .22 thousand board feet per cubic meter.
Lumber production, exports and imports
Forisk. U.S. Census Bureau. Trade data was converted using .452 thousand board feet per cubic meter.
Tariff tracker - Tariff rates applied to U.S. trade partners are consistenly updated to reflect policy changes. The World Trade Organization (WTO) tracks duties and tariffs on forest products. For your convenience, the following links will take you to tariff data for top markets, including Japan and Vietnam. Logs are currently exempt from tariffs for Canada under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), but please refer to the U.S. Trade Representative website for up-to-date information. The U.S. applies countervailing duties on Canadian lumber imports based on an annual review process (detailed information can be found at the Federal Register). Please consult with a trade lawyer or professional for detailed and up-to-date insights on tariff rates and their application to forest products.
For guidance on interpreting duty and tariff rates, please refer to our Tariff Guide.
Forest product updates
Housing market remains constrained by low affordability.
Random Lengths’ Composite Lumber Index increased 8.4% to $532 in July due to tight supply conditions. The housing market remains constrained due to low home buyer affordability. Spending on residential construction continued to fall for the third straight month in June. While listing prices are down 2.4% year over year on average across the country, mortgage rates surged in July as rising geopolitical tensions and inflation risk pushed long-term Treasury bond yields up. (Mortgage rates are closely correlated to long-term Treasury yields.) Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies recently reported that remodeling permitting and retail spending on building products have flattened recently, and that this trend is likely to continue through mid-2027. Residential repair and improvements represent the largest demand driver for lumber in the U.S.
Log markets remained relatively stable in July, supported by steady mill demand and adequate inventories. The latest annual survey of loggers done by Timber Harvesting showed that 85% of loggers reported being impacted by mill closures, particularly among those for pulp and paper. Oregon's Board of Forestry approved a new Western Oregon State Forests Management Plan that places greater emphasis on habitat conservation, water quality, and climate resilience. When combined with the state's pending Habitat Conservation Plan, the changes are expected to reduce timber harvest volumes from Oregon state forests over time. In Washington, an expanded non-fish-bearing stream-buffer rule remains on track to take effect August 31 and could reduce harvestable timber volumes on some private timberlands. USDA announced $80 million in financing support aimed at expanding domestic timber production capacity and forest-product processing facilities, including projects in Oregon. Investment goals include expanding U.S. timber production, reducing wildfire risk and strengthening domestic sawmill infrastructure.
Profitability
June 10, 2026Forest product mills: Breakeven profitability - Neutral 12-month outlook
Timberlands: Slightly profitable - Neutral 12-month outlook
Low homeowner affordability continues to weigh on the housing market, resulting in relatively weak wood product demand and prices.
Log demand is limited as wood product mills face a weak housing market.
The U.S. housing market is the primary driver of forest products demand. Log and lumber exports play a relatively minor role, making up about 6% and 3% of total domestic production, respectively. On the West Coast, log producers have historically benefited from strong Japanese demand for high-quality grades. Following the Great Recession, demand from China increased significantly to support housing construction. These trends are reversing due to aging demographics and weakening economies. The Softwood Lumber Agreement sets the terms for Canadian lumber exports to the U.S., which make up about a quarter of total domestic supply.
Log production, exports and imports
Forisk. U.S. Census Bureau. Production levels were calculated using region specific recovery rates. Trade data was converted using .22 thousand board feet per cubic meter.
Lumber production, exports and imports
Forisk. U.S. Census Bureau. Trade data was converted using .452 thousand board feet per cubic meter.
Tariff tracker - Tariff rates applied to U.S. trade partners are consistenly updated to reflect policy changes. The World Trade Organization (WTO) tracks duties and tariffs on forest products. For your convenience, the following links will take you to tariff data for top markets, including Japan and Vietnam. Logs are currently exempt from tariffs for Canada under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), but please refer to the U.S. Trade Representative website for up-to-date information. The U.S. applies countervailing duties on Canadian lumber imports based on an annual review process (detailed information can be found at the Federal Register). Please consult with a trade lawyer or professional for detailed and up-to-date insights on tariff rates and their application to forest products.
For guidance on interpreting duty and tariff rates, please refer to our Tariff Guide.
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